Dave Donaldson

A couple of months ago, on my 30th birthday as a gift to myself, I walked into one of the local EB Games stores and reserved a copy of an Xbox 360 (the $399 version, not the other one). I was giddy going into the store and was even more giddy after I gave them $50 to reserve my unit (hehe, unit). Even though the 360 launch was 2 months away, I knew time would fly and I'd have my unit (hehe, unit) in no time. It was going to be a nice belated-birthday present/early Christmas present.

But as I'm sure a lot of you found out, Microsoft has decided to hold back on their shipments. I was first made aware of this about 3 weeks ago when EB Games called me and said I was in danger of not getting my unit (hehe, unit) because Microsoft hadn't yet told them how many units (hehe, units) they were going to receive. At the time I kind of shrugged it off because I figured they were just being cautious. I mean, Microsoft was certainly going to ship at least the number of units (hehe, units) that had been reserved. So I went about my business for the next couple weeks.

Then about 3 days before the Nov. 22 launch date I got another call from EB Games telling me that they only got 66 units (hehe, units) and that I was #80 on the list. They informed me that if for some reason 14 people didn't pick theirs up that they would call me and I could have one. Yeah, right. The probability of that happening was less than zero. I was definitely saddened by this news, but thought I would still get my unit (hehe, unit) when the store got their next shipment in a couple weeks, at least in my feeble, non-Microsoft marketing way of thinking.

So on launch day I just so happen to get into my car and drive aimlessly towards the mall, not really understanding where I was going, but ending up wondering into the EB Games store with the stupid thought that there was an error in the store's shipment and that they actually received 166 units (hehe, units) not 66. I loiter around the store for a bit then finally ask the guy behind the counter where I was on the list. He conforms that I'm #80 (yes I knew that, thanks) and that I would be on the 3rd shipment of units (hehe, units). 3rd shipment? Huh? When the hell is that? The guy says that the store only got in 26 units (hehe, units) not 66 and that the 3rd shipment would be in mid-January! I'm now depressed, but it's not the end of the world :-(

I've been giving this some thought on how Microsoft could let this happen. I've got a theory and it starts with the release of PlayStation 2. When PS2 was launched 6 (?) years ago, Sony did something very similar in that they only shipped 60-75% of the reserved units (hehe, units). Why? Because in doing so they generated even more hype about the system than there already was. And why do that? Because hype sells. Just like sex and violence on TV, hype sells products. Just think about it. Sony did this to attract the *casual* gaming consumer. The hardcore gamers are easy. The hardcore gamers are going to buy a new system no matter what. You had them when you announced the new system 3 years ago. But reeling in the casual gamer is not nearly as easy. It takes quite a bit more to hook them in. One of the best ways to do that is to generate as much hype as possible because it gets the causal gamer thinking, “Damn! If Sony can't even fulfill shipments on their pre-orders, it must be good. Gee, maybe I'm missing out. I better get in line to shell out my $399.”

I firmly believe Microsoft is doing almost exactly the same thing. I just don't believe for a second that Microsoft underestimated demand for the Xbox 360. I've read too much over the last year or so about Microsoft's marketing strategy to believe that. Microsoft learned a lot in the wake of the launch of the Xbox 1, especially about how they completely blew the opportunity to attract the Japan market (for instance, the letter X in Japan has negative connotations). Once again, “Brilliant Microsoft marketing, film at 11.“ If Microsoft *did* underestimate demand for the 360, then that's a royal screwup, yet not really surprising. But I'm not convinced of that in this case.

So on one hand I can understand where Microsoft is coming from with their need to generate as much hype as possible for the 360. Hype sells units (hehe, units). But my problem is with the pre-orders. I firmly believe that the point of a pre-order is so that the consumer assures themself of a unit (hehe, unit) *on launch day*. In fact, that's what all consumers think a pre-order is for; otherwise, they wouldn't bother reserving a copy. I mean, if I had known 2 months ago that Microsoft wasn't going to fulfill at least the amount of pre-orders, I wouldn't have handed over my $50 to do so. Come on Microsoft, at least fulfill your pre-orders.

The kicker for me in all this is that it's the holiday season. Mad shoppers everywhere, yet no one will be able to buy a 360 because there are none to be had. It's strange that Microsoft wouldn't want to stock the shelves this time of year. I guess that's the most frustrating part for me. Rumor has it that Microsoft will ship tons of the units (hehe, units) right after Christmas, but I can't for the life of me figure that one out, if indeed true.

I guess if store shelves *were* stocked with 360s then I would just drive around trying to find one like anything else, but you see, there's no hype in that.